Enquanto o Brasil superou a recessão no terceiro trimestre, o país ainda deverá crescer em 2014 de 0,2 por cento, o mais lento desde 2009.
"Esses números ainda estão apontando para uma economia fraca", Luciano Rostagno, estrategista-chefe do Banco Mizuho do Brasil SA, em São Paulo, disse por telefone. "O desafio para Levy será grande."
O governo anunciou, em 29 de dezembro cortes de pensões e no salário desemprego que trará uma economia de cerca de 18 bilhões de reais. Uma semana depois, Levy sinalizou que poderia aumentar a arrecadação tributária para ajudar a alcançar um "necessário" reequilíbrio orçamentário.
Brazil’s Real Drops From One-Month High on Economic Team Concern
By Paula Sambo - Jan 15, 2015 - 6:38 PM GMT-0200
Brazil’s real fell from a one-month high on concern over Finance Minister Joaquim Levy’s ability to restore growth to Latin America’s largest economy.
The currency dropped 1 percent to 2.6420 per U.S. dollar at the close of trade in Sao Pauloafter climbing a day earlier to its strongest level since Dec. 9. Swap rates, a gauge of expectations for changes in borrowing costs, declined 0.04 percentage point to 12.62 percent on the contract maturing in January 2016.
Concern that Brazil’s fiscal deterioration would lead to a reduced credit rating helped push the real down 11 percent in 2014. Levy told reporters in Brasilia on Jan. 13 that seeking to cut gross debt below 50 percent of gross domestic product in the long term would be a positive step.
“While Levy’s comments were pleasing to the market, 2.60 is the ceiling,” Joao Paulo de Gracia Correa, a trader at Correparti Corretora de Cambio in Curitiba, Brazil, said by telephone. “A level stronger than that is an exaggeration because there is no concrete positive news, just promises.”
The seasonally adjusted economic activity index gained 0.04 percent in November after shrinking 0.1 percent in the prior month, the central bank reported Thursday. The median estimate from 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.2 percent drop in the GDP proxy.
While Brazil edged out of recession in the third quarter, the country is still expected to post growth in 2014 of 0.2 percent, the slowest since 2009.
‘Weak Economy’
“These numbers are still pointing to a weak economy,” Luciano Rostagno, the chief strategist at Banco Mizuho do Brasil SA in Sao Paulo, said by telephone. “The challenge for Levy will be large.”
The government announced on Dec. 29 cuts to pension and unemployment benefits that will save an estimated 18 billion reais. A week later, Levy signaled that he could increase tax revenue to help achieve a “necessary” budget rebalancing.
To support the real and limit import price increases, the central bank sold the equivalent of $98 million of currency swaps Thursday and rolled over contracts worth $487.9 million.